2024-10

Journal Sistem Informasi (Issue : 6) (Volume : 13)

This paper presents a deep learning-based system for predicting gold prices using historical data. The system leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a specialized recurrent neural network architecture, to capture temporal dependencies and patterns in the time series data of gold prices. A comprehensive dataset of historical gold prices is used, and the model is trained on a sequence of past data points to predict future prices. The data is preprocessed using normalization techniques to improve the performance of the model. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in providing accurate price predictions, offering potential utility in financial forecasting and decision-making processes. The system's performance is evaluated through visualization and statistical metrics, illustrating its capacity to track gold price trends and predict future market movements. This work contributes to the growing field of time series forecasting by applying deep learning techniques to financial markets.

2024-01

Humanities Journal of University of Zakho (HJUOZ) (Issue : 1) (Volume : 12)

سعت هذه الدراسة إلى معرفة مدى أثر متغيرات السياسة النقدية في معالجة التضخم الركودي من خلال تحليل البيانات الخاصة بالاقتصاد العراقي للمدة ) 2004 - 2021 (. اعتمدت الدراسة على المنهج الاستقرائي التحليلي في تقديم مفهوم السياسة النقدية وعمل متغيراتها وأثرها في معالجة مشكلة التضخم الركودي للعراق، من خلال استخدام الاسلوب الكمي والتحليلي لقياس تلك العلاقة، والدراسة توصلت الى ان هناك تأثير لتلك المتغيرات في التضخم الركودي، حيث أن 81 % من التغيرات في التضخم الركودي سببها هي متغيرات السياسة النقدية، وكان الاثر الأكبر والمعنوي في تلك المتغيرات هو سعر الصرف وهذا بكل تأكيد مطابق لمنطق النظرية الاقتصادية بنا ء على خصائص الاقتصاد العراقي.

2023-09

Humanities Journal of University of Zakho (Issue : 4) (Volume : 11)

The aim of the research is to understant the nature of the reciprocal relationship that exists in Iraq between the public budget and the trade balance. This understanding can be attained by monitoring their impacts on overall supply and demand as well as how these variables are mirrored in the inflation phenomenon. Along with measuring and analyzing the causal relationship's direction, the research also examines the impact of Iraq's general budget deficit and trade balance on the country's overall level of prices from 2004 to 2020.The annual data was used from its official sources. The study assumed that the deficit in the Iraqi economy is a double deficit and it is directed from the trade balance towards the public budget, causing inflation, due to the nominal financial wealth that we possess, since the economy is rentier. The study used the analytical descriptive approach in the theoretical side as well as the quantitative approach in the applied side with the use of the structural autoregressive vector (SVAR) model. The study concluded that there is a causal relationship between the net public budget and the net trade balance. The impact of net shocks on inflation from the public budget is relatively weak.. As for the net trade balance variable, its contribution to changes in the inflation rate was large as a result of the weakness of the local productive sectors and the heavy dependence on imports from abroad to meet local demand.

2023-09

Al Kut Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences (Issue : 48) (Volume : 15)

This research aims to shed light on the reality of industrial production in Iraq for the period 2008-2021 and on the reality, structure of bank credit granted to the industrial sector (both private and government) in the same period. And then measuring and analyzing the effect of this credit in its two parts on the growth of industrial production for the same period. The research adopted the inductive analytical approach in analyzing the available data on bank credit granted to the industrial sector and the added value of industrial production in Iraq, and the econometric approach through the use of multiple linear regression to measure the impact of bank credit on industrial production in Iraq. The research has come to the conclusion that the percentages of bank credit granted to the Iraqi industrial sector suffer from fluctuation, imbalance, and scarcity, and that this credit does not affect the industrial production process, as it was found to be insignificant. When comparing the credit granted by private banks to the credit granted by government banks, it turns out that there is a defect in the credit structure. As the largest proportions of credit granted to industrialists come from government banks, despite their small numbers, and the lowest percentage comes from private banks, despite their large numbers. It was found that the credit of government banks is not significant and does not affect the industrial production process, while the credit of private banks, despite its scarcity, is significant and influential in the industrial production process

2023-05

Academic Journal of Nawroz University (Issue : 2) (Volume : 12)

Tourism sector plays an effective and influential role in the process of economic and social development for many countries. This role is reflected through its positive effects in creating investment opportunities, attracting local and foreign capital, creating job opportunities and increasing public revenues, in addition to the transfer of new technology, skills and modern management methods into the country, thus raising the rates of economic growth. The study aims to clarify the importance, characteristics and determinants of tourism investment, and then the constituents and constraints of the tourism investment environment in the Kurdistan Region. As well as analyzing the reality of tourism investment by focusing on Dohuk

2022-05

Journal of Duhok University (Issue : 1) (Volume : 25)

Economic growth is an important factor in poverty reduction. Usually, different societal groups differ in benefiting from growth, and the optimum situation is with the pro-poor growth. This paper is an attempt to determine whether growth in European expansion countries was pro-poor during the period 2006-2018 when convergence criteria imposed by the Maastricht Treaty. This research gets its importance from the fact that it discusses the pro-poverty growth in an area and international economic prospective that have not been previously addressed, and it uses the inductive method to reach its objectives. The paper concluded that growth was pro-poor in (Poland, Malta, Czech, Latvia, Romania, Estonia), while it was not pro-poor in (Cyprus, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Lithuania). The paper also concluded that the expanding countries that were able to quickly adapt to convergence criteria achieved pro-poor growth regardless of their income levels

2022-03

Humanities Journal of University of Zakho (Issue : 1) (Volume : 10)

This study aims to measure the impact of public and private bank credit on the non-oil GDP in Iraq for the period (2004-2019). The study relied on analyzing the effect of a group of variables most affecting the dependent variable using advanced statistical methods. The study relied mainly on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method in estimating the effect of bank credit variables on non-oil GDP, as well as the standard model to confirm the absence of the autocorrelation problem according to the (LM) test, and the absence of the estimated model from the problem of heterogeneity according to the (ARCH) test. The results of the study were identical to the alternative hypothesis, which states that there is a significant and weak effect of the credit of private banks on the non-oil GDP (NOGDP) with no significant effect of the credit of public banks on the non-oil GDP. This is due to the fact that the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy that depends on oil as a major source for the state, and to other factors that affect non-oil output, the most important of which is the security and political issues. The study suggests the necessity of activating the role of bank credit in the production process by addressing the structural imbalances in the Iraqi economy.

2019-12

Academic Journal of Nawroz University (Issue : 4) (Volume : 8)

FDI flows to developing countries, especially in the 1990s, have become increasingly important as a major source of external financing. The increase in the size of this investment has been accompanied by a noticeable change in its structure. Investment in the form of acquisition of existing assets has expanded much more rapidly than investment in new assets, especially in countries that are in the process of large-scale privatization of public institutions and the transition to a market economy. The Iraqi banking sector has witnessed since 2003, under the liberalization procedures and the transition to a market economy, the entry of many foreign banks. The new procedures and legislation assisted by the government have allowed entry into two main types: entry pattern through acquisition and partnership and entry pattern by opening new branches wholly owned by the foreign bank. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the patterns of foreign banks' access to the Iraqi banking market for the period 2003-2016. To achieve the research objective, the inductive method was used by moving from part to whole, using the graphical and quantitative method in presenting and analyzing the available data. The research found a basic conclusion that the pattern of entry through acquisition and participation was more appropriate for the development of banking services in Iraq, and the provision of financing can help support economic growth.

2018-06

Humanities Journal of University of Zakho 6 (2), 533-548 (Issue : 2) (Volume : 6)

The research relied on the inductive method to reach all of results from partial introductions through the economic analysis of the available data in publications of the government institutions related to the Iraqi banking sector, such as the Central Bank and the Ministry of Planning. The research reached a number of results, the most important of which: The Iraqi banking sector suffers from fundamental imbalances in all its credit, deposit and investment activities, despite the government support. In addition to the existence of unfair competition, that led to the monopoly of government banks for banking activity, that is because of the weakness of the banking culture in Iraq on one hand, and the instructions and government laws that forced the individuals and companies in the private and public sector to go to government banks on the other hand. The study also found that, the foreign banks did not play their real role in supporting banking competition and improving the quality of the provided banking services, for a number of reasons, the most important of which were the granted incentives and facilities of the government for the private banks, which led to the facilitation of banking achievements of the profits in easy ways without presenting real banking services. The study suggests finding ways to encourage private banks to earn profits by providing real banking services instead of relying on government incentives and facilities.