ئەز   Taleeaa Ramadhan Ibrahim

Foreign trade is one of the basic sectors of any country's economy. It is of great importance in developing economic relations between countries worldwide, especially developed and developing countries, through the import and export of goods and services, both visible and invisible, and the movement of capital and gold trading. Foreign trade activities are usually carried out through the mechanism of linking the exchange rate of the local currency to foreign currencies. The importance of this study lies in highlighting the fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. These fluctuations directly affect the economy in general and the costs of importing goods and services in particular. This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Iraqi imports for the period 2004–2023. To achieve the study objective, the study relied on time series data and used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the relationship between the dependent and explanatory variables in the long and short term. The study found a statistically significant positive relationship at the 5% level between the exchange rate and imports in the long term, which means that the rise in exchange rates in Iraq led to an increase in the volume of imports during the study period. based on these results, the study recommends the need to create a stable economic environment for the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies, especially the US dollar, in addition to strengthening the role of the Central Bank of Iraq in controlling the official and parallel exchange rates to limit their negative impact on the increase in consumer imports.

This study aims to measure and analyze the impact of oil price fluctuations in Iraq during the period 2004–2023. The study relied on time series data issued by the World Bank and the Central Bank of Iraq. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to measure the relationship between the study variables, with foreign trade as the dependent variable, while oil prices were the main explanatory variable. In addition, the study incorporated other economic variables: oil revenues, inflation, and the exchange rate as control variables that can affect foreign trade in the long and short term. The study also used the Error Correction Coefficient (ECM). The long-term results of the study showed a significant positive relationship between foreign trade and oil revenues, while a significant negative relationship was found between foreign trade and both oil price fluctuations and inflation. Regarding the exchange rate, the results indicated no significant relationship between it and foreign trade. Based on these findings, the study recommends the need to create an environment conducive to exchange rate stability by activating monetary policy tools, working to control inflation rates, and supporting other economic sectors such as industry and agriculture, to reduce excessive dependence on the oil sector and achieve economic development goals.

International trade in services is one of the important topics in the global economy at the present time, whether it is in developed or developing countries, and it also contributes to the process of economic growth and economic development, although developing countries have not benefited from this trade due to a number of restrictions to their trade at the internal level. And externally, this study aims to conduct a standard test of the determinants of international trade in services in selected developing countries represented in (Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, India, Republic of Korea, Morocco, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Vietnam), for the period 2000 -2020 The study adopted a tabular data analysis with the use of PMG model in ARDL environment. The study found that population variables, per capita GDP, gross fixed capital formation ratio of GDP positively affect international trade in services in the long term, while inflation variables, foreign direct investment (FDI), value added services It may negatively affect the international trade of services in the long run.